Denialists are Doomed

It’s been a frigid winter in much of the United States, but Greg Laden notes that the country covers only 1.5% of the Earth’s surface, and overall the planet just experienced the fourth-warmest January on record.  Meanwhile global warming denialists are resorting to every rhetorical trick in the book, such as comparing their increasingly outnumbered position to that of Galileo.  While it’s tempting to recount the history of science as that of a few brilliant mavericks overthrowing established consensus, Greg writes “Science hardly ever gets Galileoed, and even Galileo did not Galileo science; he Galileoed religion.”  Meanwhile, on Stoat, William M. Connolley offers some explanations for denialist behavior.  For many, denialism is a political position amenable to any scientific veneer.  But the consequences of denying global warming are more than political: they could make life harder for generations to come.  And denialists, far from being vindicated, can only look forward to being reviled, ridiculed, and forgotten.

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Fall Olympics / The Slushy Games

Warm weather at the Winter Olympics played a major part in the $51 billion extravaganza. Greg Laden calls the Sochi games more of a “Fall Olympics” as competitors bit the slush on the slopes and the half pipe. At the Extreme Park, casualties among women outnumbered casualties among men by nearly 3 to 1. Why the gender imbalance? Greg wonders if the men’s and women’s courses are not suitably dimorphic, or if better training would make a difference. On The Pump Handle, Celeste Monforton takes the panoptic view with the official Olympic injury and illness surveillance system. During the last winter games, in Vancouver, 11.2% of all athletes were injured, 7.1% got sick, and a single person was killed. In Vancouver, as in Sochi, women were injured at a significantly higher rate than men. Is it possible to reduce the injury rate for women? And can the IOC predict a suitable venue for winter sports as Arctic air becomes increasingly motile?

Hot Winter Days

The anti-scientific M.O. of some political conservatives was in full swing during the ‘polar vortex,’ as frigid weather brought south from the Arctic led many commentators to scoff, “look how cold it is, can you believe anyone thinks the Earth is getting warmer?” Coby Beck adds some perspective from climate historian Christopher C. Burt on A Few Things Ill-Considered, writing “cold snaps like this past week’s used to occur every couple of years in the 1800′s,” and more like every 5-10 years in the 1900’s. Meanwhile the last time it got so cold in the U.S. was twenty years ago. Coby says “what is remarkable is that this level of cold has become remarkable”—because it used to be commonplace. As the planet gets warmer, regional weather, unlike average global temperature, remains highly variable. Coby concludes, “this is just what scientists refer to as ‘winter.'”  Or what they used to, anyway.

Greg Laden offers a complementary interpretation, saying the polar vortex is the result of a jet stream increasingly unsettled by the warming of the Arctic. Per the theory of “weather whiplash,” extreme temperatures might become more common as the energized jet stream contorts Arctic air. While the eastern U.S. was suffering bitter cold, northern Europe enjoyed unseasonal warmth; there’s only so much Arctic air to go around.  Which means the northern hemisphere can look forward to hot winter days as surely as very cold ones.  The polar vortex was entirely consistent with global warming, and those who claimed otherwise wore their disingenuity on their sleeves.